Paulo Rodrigues Banco de Portugal and NOVA School of Business and Economics   Banco de Portugal Economics and Research Department Av. Almirante Reis 71, 6th Floor Lisbon, 1150-012 Lisbon Portugal   pmrodrigues@bportugal.pt   http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/EstudosEconomicos/EconomistasInvestigadores/Pages/PauloRodrigues.aspx   Biographical Sketch: (1998) Ph.D. in Econometrics - Univ. Manchester - UK (1995) MA in Economics and Econometrics - Univ. Manchester - UK   Primary Research Focus: Time Series Econometrics   JEL Areas: C1 : Econometric and Statistical Methods: General C2 : Single Equation Models; Single Variables: General