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| Nilu Farhat |
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| ''Economic growth and female labor force participation in India: Evidence from ARDL and Toda–Yamamoto Tests'' |
| ( 2026, Vol. 46 No.2 ) |
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| This study examines the long-run relationship between economic growth and female
labor force participation (FLFPR) in India over the period 1960–2025. To address historical data
gaps and major structural breaks, the analysis utilizes an interpolated FLFPR series alongside
structural dummies. Adapting to the mixed orders of integration present in the dataset, we apply
an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegration, followed
by the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality framework. Furthermore, the Lind and
Mehlum (2010) three-step procedure is applied for a rigorous robustness check of non-linearity.
The results confirm that the variables are cointegrated, indicating a stable long-run equilibrium.
Crucially, the ARDL framework and SLM test mathematically validate Goldin's (1994) classical
feminization U-shape in the long run. However, instead of a realized rebound, the empirical
evidence shows India's female labor market is currently navigating the structural "trough" (the
bottom) of the U-curve. However, the Toda-Yamamoto analysis reveals no statistically
significant bidirectional causality between GDP and FLFPR. Ultimately, these findings suggest
that while a long-run U-shaped trajectory exists, India's female labor market dynamics are
shaped more heavily by underlying structural composition, educational transitions, and regime
shifts rather than being strictly driven by aggregate macroeconomic growth alone. |
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| Keywords: FLFPR, Economic Growth, India, Cointegration, ARDL, Lind and Mehlum, Toda-Yamamoto. |
JEL: J4 - Particular Labor Markets: General
C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General |
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| Manuscript Received : Jul 13 2026 | | Manuscript Accepted : Jun 30 2026 |
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