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| Yusaku Nishimura, Yang Ji and Bianxia Sun |
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| ''The Trump tariffs and intraday risk spillovers in the global financial markets'' |
| ( 2026, Vol. 46 No.2 ) |
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| This paper empirically investigates the impact of the Trump tariffs announced on April 2 on intraday risk spillovers across global financial markets. We estimate the intraday volatility spillover index using a TVP-VAR model with five-minute data from major global financial markets. Our results show that Trump tariffs and the ensuing US-China trade conflict impact intraday volatility spillovers across stocks, foreign exchange, commodities, and cryptocurrency markets. Moreover, volatility spillovers peak on days when multiple countries announce tariff-related policies simultaneously. It is also evidenced that net volatility spillovers across the four markets changed after the Trump tariffs announcement, with particularly significant changes in the foreign exchange market. The empirical results suggest that US policies perceived as aggressive toward other nations, along with the retaliatory measures they provoke, heighten market volatility and intensify risk spillovers in global financial markets. |
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| Keywords: Intraday volatility spillover, Trump tariffs, US-China trade conflict, High-frequency data |
JEL: G1 - General Financial Markets
F1 - Trade: General |
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| Manuscript Received : Oct 31 2025 | | Manuscript Accepted : Jun 30 2026 |
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