First Author:   Juan Carlos Cuestas Eesti Pank juan.carlos.cuestas@eestipank.ee   Eesti Pank, Economics and Research Unit, Estonian pst 13 Tallinn, 15095, Estonia   +3726680645(Phone) +3726680645(Fax) http://jccuestas.me.uk/ Second Author: Maurizio Intartaglia University of Sussex intartagliamaurizio@gmail.com