First Author:   Gerhard Reitschuler Oesterreichische Nationalbank gerhard.reitschuler@oenb.co.at   Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, POB61 Vienna, A 1011, Austria       Second Author: Jesús Crespo Cuaresma Department of Economics, University of Vienna jesus.crespo-cuaresma@univie.ac.at