João Frois Caldeira Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul   Porto Alegre, RS 90040-000 Brasil   joao.caldeira@ufrgs.br             JEL Areas: E3 : Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) N1 : Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative