First Author:   Erich Gundlach Hamburg University and GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies erich.gundlach@wiso.uni-hamburg.de   Hamburg University, Department of Economics, Von-Melle-Park 5 Hamburg, 20146, Germany       www.erichgundlach.de Second Author: Rasmus Thönnessen Hamburg University rasmus.thoennessen@wiso.uni-hamburg.de   Hamburg University, Department of Economics, Von-Melle-Park 5 Hamburg, 20146, Germany