Erich Gundlach University of Hamburg and GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies   GIGA Institute of Asian Studies Rothenbaumchaussee 32 Hamburg, 20148 Germany   gundlach@giga-hamburg.de   http://www.erichgundlach.de           JEL Areas: O1 : Economic Development: General O4 : Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General